CSIS: The China Economic Risk Matrix, written by the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics’ non-resident senior associate Daniel Rosen, non-resident adjunct fellow Logan Wright, and Associate Director of the China Projects team at Rhodium Group, Lauren Gloudeman. Despite rising inefficiency, China’s financial system has served as the shock absorber that has helped China’s economy recover from the virus outbreak and maintain growth. But the same elements that have driven China’s recovery have also pushed China’s financial system deep into a gauntlet of systemic financial risks. The China Economic Risk Matrix is the combination of indicators of financial vulnerability that threaten to overwhelm Beijing’s policy tools to manage them, along with a novel, China-specific financial stress indicator. Building on the earlier CSIS volume, Credit and Credibility, this report explores the specific conditions and markets in which changes in government credibility can have a significant impact on systemic stability in China.
The U.S. unemployment rate shot up faster than in any other developed country during the pandemic. WSJ explains how differences in government aid and labor-market structures can help predict how and where jobs might recover.
The covid-19 pandemic is set to increase public debt to levels last seen after the second world war. But is rising public debt a cause for concern? New economic thinking suggests perhaps not, at least for now.